Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper shows that the quantitative predictions of an equilibrium asset-pricing model with financial frictions are consistent with key features of the Sudden Stop phenomenon. Foreign traders incur costs in trading assets with domestic agents, and a collateral constraint limits external debt to a fraction of the market value of domestic equity holdings. When this constraint does not bind, standard productivity shocks cause typical real-business-cycle effects. When it binds, the same shocks cause strikingly different effects depending on the leverage ratio and asset market liquidity. With high leverage and a liquid market, the shocks force bfire salesQ of assets and Fisher’s debt-deflation mechanism amplifies the responses of asset prices, consumption and the current account. Precautionary saving makes these Sudden Stops infrequent in the long run. D 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
منابع مشابه
Sudden Stops, Financial Crises and Leverage: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q*
This paper shows that the quantitative predictions of a DSGE model with an endogenous collateral constraint are consistent with key features of the emerging markets’ Sudden Stops. Business cycle dynamics produce periods of expansion during which the ratio of debt to asset values raises enough to trigger the constraint. This sets in motion a deflation of Tobin’s Q driven by Irving Fisher’s debt-...
متن کاملHow do Sudden Stops of Capital Flows Affect Currency Crises in Asia?
Sudden stops can be characterized by sharp reversals in capital inflows, large declines in output, and steep collapses in real asset prices (Mendoza and Smith, 2009). In almost all recent crises, capital account reversals amounting to more than 10% of an afflicted country’s GDP have occurred (Calvo and Reinhart, 1999 and Nabli, 1999). More specifically, reversals in capital flows to emergin...
متن کاملLessons from the Debt - Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops
The " Sudden Stop " phenomenon of the recurrent emerging markets crises of the last ten years is one of the key questions facing International Macroeconomics. Sudden Stops are defined by unusually large recessions marked by: sharp, abrupt current account reversals, large contractions in output and absorption, and collapses in goods and asset prices. In Mexico's 1995 Sudden Stop, for example, th...
متن کاملFinancial Frictions, Sudden Stops, and the External Capital Structure of Emerging Markets
This paper argues that credit frictions and asset trading costs signi cantly increase the probability of a Sudden Stop in the early stages of nancial globalization, and that this in turn, signi cantly alters the long-run external capital structure of emerging market economies. Upon opening the capital account, domestic agents have an incentive to accumulate debt and sell domestic equity in orde...
متن کاملNber Working Paper Series Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.s. Credit Crisis
Uncertainty about the riskiness of a new financial environment was an important factor behind the U.S. credit crisis. We show that a boom-bust cycle in debt, asset prices and consumption characterizes the equilibrium dynamics of a model with a collateral constraint in which agents learn "by observation" the true riskiness of the new environment. Early realizations of states with high ability to...
متن کامل